Sebastián Salgado · Author
September 2, 2025
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The dual crisis shaping U.S.–Mexico freight in 2025 Shippers moving goods from Mexico to the United States, whether industrial machinery , automotive parts , or food and beverages , are facing a new set of risks. A worsening truck driver shortage and a surge in cargo theft in Mexico 2025 are combining to threaten the reliability of cross-border supply chains. The numbers are stark: Mexico is already short 56,000 drivers , with the gap projected to reach 106,000 by 2028 . At the same time, theft incidents are rising in central states like Puebla, Guanajuato, and State of Mexico, where criminals are stealing not just goods but entire trucks and trailers . For importers, this means higher landed costs, compliance pressure, and more operational risk. Cargo theft: a growing risk for U.S.–Mexico logistics Cargo theft in Mexico is disrupting freight flows in industries from electronics to building materials . The biggest impacts include: Hotspots : Puebla, Guanajuato, and State of Mexico. Targeted goods : Food & beverage shipments, construction materials, and consumer goods. Tactics : Full truckload hijackings, violent theft, and stolen trailers. The driver shortage: fewer trucks available for cross-border freight The Mexico truck driver shortage is tightening available capacity for northbound shipments. Many drivers are leaving the profession due to low wages and safety concerns, while carriers face profitability challenges from a strong peso and higher fuel costs. Shippers importing industrial machinery , pharma , or retail goods are already seeing the effects: less reliable coverage, lane surcharges, and shrinking carrier pools. A paradox: oversupply and shortage at once While driver numbers are shrinking, some lanes still show cross-border trucking overcapacity . Earlier tariff fears drove shippers to front-load freight, leaving some carriers idle today. Truck sales are down 41% , signaling financial stress in the sector. The paradox: soft freight rates now, higher reliability risks later . Learn more about What Importers Need to Know About Mexico’s New Electronic Declaration of Value (Manifestación de Valor).
